Meteorologists Don’t Think Matthew Will Survive A Loop Into The Gulf

Today and the next several days the attention of the nation and the world will be focused on Florida and the Southeastern United States. Hurricane Matthew has already proven to be a deadly and destructive storm. It's march up the Florida coast is just beginning as of this writing.

Besides the deep compassion and concern we have for our coastal brothers and sisters in the path of this storm is the possibility that Matthew might perform a loop in the Atlantic and head for the Gulf of Mexico.

There's one model, the GFS, that showed it going southwest through the Florida Keys and Havana. But the model shows it as nothing, barely even a tropical storm. I don't give much credence in that, and it entering the Gulf will probably never happen.

That's what WVUE Television (New Orleans) Meteorologist David Bernard told NOLA.com after viewing a midday tropical model run on Thursday.

Many of the tropical models that were run earlier this morning seem to suggest that Bernard's assessment of what should be the remnants of Matthew early next week will do should be accurate.

Even if a remnant of Matthew came back around that way, it would be nothing. It would be very weak, a remnant low at best.

The reason for the demise of this currently powerful hurricane? The upper level wind flow is expected to basically blow the tops off the thunderstorms associated with the storm by the time it begins a potential turn southwestward toward the Bahamas.

Could Bernard be incorrect in his assessment? Absolutely. However most forecasters we have spoken with and reports that we've read regarding the future of Matthew do seem to agree with the scenario that Bernard is forecasting.

The bad news is that even a weakened system passing over damaged areas of Florida would only hamper any relief efforts in that state.