Bossier’s Own Seth Lugo Set for a Stellar 2025 Season

Baseball season is officially here. Pitchers & Catchers are reporting to spring training this week, spring training games kickoff next week. And former Parkway Panther, Centenary Gent and Bossier native Seth Lugo is looking to build off of a tremendous 2024 baseball season. Our local superstar had a career year last season, but can he do it again? Let's breakdown the numbers.

Can Bossier's Seth Lugo Pitch at Cy Young Levels in 2025?

2024 was Seth Lugo's best year in the big leagues. He finished 2nd in the American League Cy Young race. He had a career year with a 3.00 ERA, 16-9 record, 181 strikeouts and over 200 innings for the first time in his career. You could argue that he was one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball in 2024.

Now, the million dollar question is can he do it again in 2025? And this is kinda of hard to predict for multiple reasons - it will only be his 3rd year as a full-time starter so we really don't know what his floor is, he's 35 years old now so a decline has to be coming at some point, and the AL Central has gotten a lot better than they were in 2024, so his direct competition has gotten a lot better.

With that said, I still think Lugo is in for a big a year. He's got a great defense behind him, his pitching style isn't as physically demanding as some of the 'high heat' guys and because he was in the bullpen for so long, I don't think he has the same amount of wear & tear on him as most 35 year olds.

Let's really dive into what 2025 could look like for Seth.

2025 Projections for Bossier's Seth Lugo

If he can stay healthy, Seth Lugo is going to be good in 2025. The biggest question I have is how good can he be?

Baseball Reference is projecting that Seth will be 11-8 in 2025 with a 3.43 ERA over 168 innings. RotoChamp has a few different projections using different models. The best model has Seth at 12-9 with a 3.94 ERA over 183 innings. The worst model projects Seth out at 12-11 with a 4.25 ERA over 180 innings.

So, all the models are projecting him to take a step back from last year while still having a pretty solid season.

Personally, I feel that Seth would be hard pressed to match or improve upon what he did last year - consecutive Cy Young type years when you're 35 is extremely difficult. With that said, I think he's going to be slightly better than the models.

And here's why:

• The Royals are a great defensive team. Seth is a contact pitcher who has a bit of swing and miss. So, the odds of a ball that isn't absolutely smoked getting through that defense are low. That's going to help keep runners off base and runs off the board.
• Kauffman Stadium is a pitchers park. You're not going to give up a ton of home runs there. So unless a ball is hit to the gap on the screws, that defense is going to make a lot of plays and limit extra bases. Again, that's a winning recipe for a pitcher.
• Seth still has one of the nastiest curveballs in baseball. His other pitches really help set that curve up. Hard contact is hard to come by against Lugo. That isn't going to change in 2025.
• Unlike other 35 year old pitchers, he doesn't have the wear & tear on him that other guys have. He doesn't pitch an extremely physical style. He spent a long time in the bullpen. So, he should be able to stay healthy and throw close to 200 innings again with limited issues.

So, my personal projections for Seth are this - I think he goes 14-9 with a 3.50 ERA over 200 innings. His ERA will be slightly higher. His win total will be slightly lower. But he's going to keep the Royals in a LOT of games and be an innings eater. But, I don't have him in double digit losses for two reasons - I think he's going to be better than some expect and the Royals bullpen has improved significantly so his relievers aren't going to let more earned runs be added to his total or blow ballgames for him.