Texas Native Grayson Rodriguez Set for 2025 MLB Breakout

The 2025 Baseball season is upon us. Every team is in camp. Spring training games will be played this week. We're going to a lot of answers to a lot of questions very shortly. But, one question that is lingering for the baseball world is this - how good will the Baltimore Orioles be and can their pitching staff hold up in 2025? The answer to that question is going to have a lot to do with Nacogdoches, Texas native Grayson Rodriguez.

Ace in the Hole? Grayson Rodriguez Needs To Step Up in 2025

The last two seasons, the Baltimore Orioles have exceeded expectations in the regular season. Two years in the playoffs, beating the Yankees out for the AL East crown in 2023. However, while the Red Sox & Yankees significantly improved this offseason, there's a lot of questions about the Orioles potential this season.

And the biggest factor of whether they make it back to the postseason is going to rest on the shoulders of their pitching. Corbin Burnes is gone. Thus far, the O's haven't signed or traded for a proven ace - which means someone that's currently on the staff is going to need to step up. And the guy they need the most is Nacogdoches native Grayson Rodriguez.

Before he got bit by the injury bug that ended his season early, Grayson was starting to develop ace type stuff - in 20 games, he was 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts over 116.2 innings. So, when he was out there, he was good. But, if the O's are going to succeed and continue to grow not only does Grayson need to make 30+ starts, but he needs to continue to find ways to get deep into games. Right now, he's good for 5 innings or so.

But, to be a true Ace, he's going to need to stay healthy and get a little deeper into ball games.

2025 Projections for East Texas Native Grayson Rodriguez

As mentioned above, for the Orioles to contend in the AL East, Grayson is going to need to become the guy the O's thought they drafted in the 1st round of the 2018 draft out of Central Heights High School.

According to reports, GROD is working on some new-ish breaking balls for his repertoire to increase swing & miss and soft contact. Will that be enough for him to take a step forward? Only time will tell. But, according to the pre-season projections based on the analytics, Grayson may not develop enough to be the guy the O's need.

According to the projections from Baseball Reference, they're expecting another step back for Grayson in 2025. Their projection, which they claim is 68% reliable, says that GROD will go 10-5 with a 3.92 ERA over 131 innings in 2025. Which is ok, but not great for a guy currently slated to be #2 in the rotation.

RotoChamp has multiple models for the 2025 season, which are slightly better than the Baseball Reference model but still not what O's fans want to see. According to their most favorable projection, Grayson is expected to go 11-8 with a 3.43 ERA over 159 innings. The worst model projects Grayson at 10-8 with a 3.92 ERA over 151 innings.

Being an Orioles fan, and injecting a little optimism, I think he's going to beat these projections. I'm thinking Gray goes 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA over 170 innings. And here's why that's what I believe - the O's defense is good, he's trying to add in some more swing & miss to his game and if he can mix his pitches he's going to induce more soft contact than he has the last two years.

There's always a chance he can take that leap forward we all want to see where he throws 200 innings and is in Cy Young contention. However, with two back to back years of 122 innings or less, I can't see the O's letting him go too deep into games at this point. The bullpen is also still a question mark, so if he leaves runners on base, they have a strong potential to score.

Regardless, I think he's going to have a healthy year and a good year. I'm just not quite sure he's ready to be the "Ace" that staff needs just yet. But, if he does make that kind of jump forward, the Orioles are poised for a championship run.