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Tomorrow is Summer Solstice, the official start of summer. Its not the halfway point in the calendar, but it is a milestone of any year. Before reaching that date milestone, the city of Shreveport has reached another, more grim milestone.

As of June 20th, 2022, the city of Shreveport has witnessed 30 homicides.

We're 171 days into this year, which means the city is averaging .17 homicides per day, or more than one killing every 6 days. If the city keeps the same rate, mathematically you could expect another 33.5 homicides this year. But that's just the math.

Research has shown that some crimes do increase over the summer months, not that it means there will be substantially more killings during the summer, but it is possible. So the number could surpass the projected average. Because the .17 daily average includes months that could be a slower rate than July and August. So if that were to increase at a higher rate, the daily rate could increase, and that would mean a higher expected total of homicides by the end of the year.

That point needs to be made, because if we have 30 homicides so far, and 33.5 expected to be added, that would only total 66.5 expected homicides. However that would be a much lower number than 2021. In 2021 there were over 85 homicides in the city. The current projection of 66.5 would be more in line with 2020, when the city had 66 homicides. Whether you look at 2020, or 2021, our current year looks to be in line with the two, but its unclear which side 2022 will fall closer to, 66 (2020) or 86 (2021).